Home sellers outnumber buyers by 63%, a record gap

Plus: Mortgage rates hit nearly 3-year high

October 14, 2026

🐪 Happy Wednesday! Today’s newsletter is 688 words, a 2.5-minute read.

Disclaimer: Average mortgage rates as of October 13, 2026. © MND Daily Rate Index.

1. MBA, FirstHome IQ launch loan officer development platform

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and FirstHome IQ have launched MBA Homebase, a professional development platform offering NMLS-approved continuing education, monthly coaching, weekly guidance and free access to FirstHome IQ’s Trust Certified program.

Open to loan officers across all lenders and channels, regardless of their employers’ MBA membership status, the platform focuses on four pillars: knowledge, purpose, business and influence. It also aims to encourage greater loan officer involvement in housing policy and industry advocacy.

The MBA targets 5,000 participants by the end of 2026, with a long-term goal of 25,000. The initiative builds on FirstHome IQ’s network of more than 160 homeownership education ambassadors.

2. Home sellers outnumber buyers by 63%, a record gap

Home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, the widest gap since records began in 2013, according to Redfin data. The imbalance marked the fourth consecutive monthly record, with 41 of the 50 major metros analyzed classified as buyer’s markets.

The gap widened as the number of buyers fell to a record-low 928,892, down 2.4% from August, while sellers rose 1.2% to 1.51 million, the highest level since March 2020.

The Sun Belt led the shift, with Miami, Nashville and Houston recording the largest seller surpluses. Just five metros remained seller’s markets.

Source: Redfin

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  • Applications up 63%

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3. More Nuggets

🏠 Mortgage volume expected to dip below $2 Trillion in 2027. (MBA)

🤝 FirstClose, Cotality team up to cut home equity closings to seven days. (FirstClose)

💸 Consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September. (BLS.gov)

📊 JPMorgan, Wells Fargo income rises as mortgage revenue falls in Q3. (WSJ)

📈 Non-QM loans grow as ARM share hits 7-year high. (OptimalBlue)

4. Existing-home sales rise 1.5% as inventory grows

Existing-home sales rose 1.5% month over month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, but remained 2.2% below year-ago levels, according to the NAR.

  • Inventory climbed 4.6% year over year to 1.6 million homes, representing a 4.8-month supply. The median existing-home price rose 1.3% annually to $417,500, marking the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Homes spent a median of 33 days on the market, up from 31 days in August.

Regional trends were mixed. The South and West each posted 2.8% monthly sales growth, while the Midwest was unchanged and the Northeast declined 2.1%.

“Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home.”

5. Mortgage rates hit nearly 3-year high as demand falls

Mortgage applications fell 2.7% week over week as the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 7.5%, its highest level in nearly three years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

  • Total applications were down 37.5% from a year earlier.

  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for 10.5% of applications, the highest share since October 2025.

  • Refinancing applications fell 0.4% weekly and 56% year over year.

  • Purchase applications dropped 4% weekly and 16% annually.

Higher borrowing costs are pushing more borrowers toward ARMs. Meanwhile, available homes are concentrated at the higher end of the market, and slower sales are adding to inventory as prices continue to rise.

☀️ You’re all caught up. See you on Friday!

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